head to head
Neither is harder. They score identically on all four axes, so the difference between them is in kind, not degree.

Optimization · Pure Optimization
A VATS-heavy wasteland RPG won by perk and build optimization.

Optimization · Pure Optimization
A free-form fantasy RPG where skill-leveling and spell-craft builds dominate.
Fallout 3 leans Optimization (Pure Optimization); The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion leans Optimization (Pure Optimization).
Same score on execution - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Fallout 3
VATS-leaning combat, low aim demand
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Real-time swing and block, modest demand
Same score on reads - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Fallout 3
Scripted enemies
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Scripted enemies
Same score on variance - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Fallout 3
Loot rolls, SPECIAL checks
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Loot and level-scaling rolls
Same score on optimization - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Fallout 3
Perk and build planning carries the run
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Skill leveling, spell crafting, exploit-prone builds
A matching score does not mean a matching test. Two games can both sit at 10 on execution and demand completely different things of you - which is why the reasoning above matters more than the number beside it.