head to head
Neither is simply harder - they are hard in different places. Baldur's Gate 3 demands more optimization; Phoenix Point demands more execution.

Optimization · Systems & Chaos
A D&D CRPG where build optimization and dice variance dominate every encounter.

Variance · Systems & Chaos
Managing a manual-aim shooting layer on top of XCOM-style strategic campaign optimization.
Baldur's Gate 3 leans Optimization (Systems & Chaos); Phoenix Point leans Variance (Systems & Chaos).
Phoenix Point leans clearly harder on execution.
Baldur's Gate 3
Turn-based; no input dexterity.
Phoenix Point
Manual aiming system introduces real accuracy input on every shot
Baldur's Gate 3 leans a little harder on reads, though the gap is small.
Baldur's Gate 3
Companions/enemies scripted, not adaptive to player modeling.
Phoenix Point
Alien factions evolve threat pools but not adaptively against you personally
Same score on variance - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Baldur's Gate 3
Dice rolls, hidden checks, encounter RNG everywhere.
Phoenix Point
Body-part hit location and mutation pools drive heavy RNG swings
Baldur's Gate 3 leans clearly harder on optimization.
Baldur's Gate 3
Builds, party comp, action economy fully solvable.
Phoenix Point
Research priority, vehicle builds, and faction balance are deeply optimizable
A matching score does not mean a matching test. Two games can both sit at 10 on execution and demand completely different things of you - which is why the reasoning above matters more than the number beside it.