head to head
Neither is meaningfully harder - they pose close to the same test. The widest gap is execution, and it is a single point.

Variance · Light / Casual
Claustrophobic horror short about piloting a blind submarine through a blood ocean.

Optimization · Light / Casual
A gorgeous first-person mystery about piecing together a boy's disappearance.
Iron Lung leans Variance (Light / Casual); The Vanishing of Ethan Carter leans Optimization (Light / Casual).
Iron Lung leans a little harder on execution, though the gap is small.
Iron Lung
Slow submarine piloting by coordinates
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter
Walking and looking, nothing more
Same score on reads - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Iron Lung
The thing outside follows a script
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter
No opponent
Iron Lung leans a little harder on variance, though the gap is small.
Iron Lung
Blind navigation; you see only camera snapshots
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter
The mystery is hidden only until discovered
Same score on optimization - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Iron Lung
Plotting waypoints on the paper map
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter
Reconstructing event sequences is light deduction
A matching score does not mean a matching test. Two games can both sit at 10 on execution and demand completely different things of you - which is why the reasoning above matters more than the number beside it.