head to head
Neither is simply harder - they are hard in different places. Soldier of Fortune: Payback demands more reads; Super Mario Odyssey demands more execution.

Execution · Pure Mechanics
A gory budget FPS testing twitch aim through linear scripted firefights.

Execution · Pure Mechanics
A 3D platformer whose joy lives in tight movement and capture-driven traversal.
Soldier of Fortune: Payback leans Execution (Pure Mechanics); Super Mario Odyssey leans Execution (Pure Mechanics).
Super Mario Odyssey leans clearly harder on execution.
Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Twitch gunfights against aggressive AI are the core
Super Mario Odyssey
Precise platforming and capture-move tech ceiling.
Soldier of Fortune: Payback leans clearly harder on reads.
Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Multiplayer existed but campaign AI never adapts
Super Mario Odyssey
No adaptive opponents whatsoever.
Same score on variance - which means the number cannot separate them. The difference is in what each one asks of you.
Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Linear levels hold few surprises
Super Mario Odyssey
Almost no randomness in level design.
Super Mario Odyssey leans clearly harder on optimization.
Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Loadout picks add only a thin layer
Super Mario Odyssey
Moon routes and movement tech learnable.
A matching score does not mean a matching test. Two games can both sit at 10 on execution and demand completely different things of you - which is why the reasoning above matters more than the number beside it.